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Showing posts with label Picks - Nenix. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Picks - Nenix. Show all posts

Nenix's Take on Olam

Posted by Share Synthesis Labels: , , ,

Olam, from the trend is showing weaknesses in its strength despite positive trending. Various indicators are pointing towards a weakening trend with correction. However, as my system is based on trend direction, and not prediction, I have to enter a position. However, I wil be monitoring this counter closely as I think this will be the first counter that will hit the exit criteria.

Trend Direction
Although the trend direction is in an upward motion, the crossover seems weak.

Trend Strength
Trend strength also points to weakness in the trend. The +DI is going down signifying that the strength of the uptrend is weakening. The -DI is showing an increasing trend, indicating a selling pressure. However, as both lines are in the region of 20, it can be said that both strengths are weak in nature. 

ATR
ATR has decreased significantly since its low of $0.835, indicating stability in prices.

Momentum
Momentum is currently weakening although generally it is still on an increasing momentum, indicating that the buying interest has waned.

Volume
Volume is in tandem with price direction and this is a characteristic of an increasing trend.

Conclusion
All indicators are pointing to a weak uptrend. However, the decision to enter is due to the fact that it is in an uptrend. Unless I have more screening criteria, I just have to live with it. What I can do is to maybe add more criteria but I feel that it would only make things more subjective, which I do not favor.
If I have to rate this stock, it would be classified as a "weak uptrend stock"
Reproduced with permission from http://nenixdreams.blogspot.com 

Sunday, April 26, 2009 | 0 Comments



Nenix's Take on Kim Eng

Posted by Share Synthesis Labels: , , ,

The decision to enter Kim Eng was slightly mixed because i reacted quite slowly when I realised the trend. Basically, the trend was showing positively two weeks ago, but i hesitated because the upside seems limited. Anyway, the analysis is as shown below.

Trend Direction
The 12w trend line crossed over the 26w trend line at a price of $1.47. Although I entered slightly late, I manage to get at $1.50. Although it crossed over, I deliberated in getting into this counter because the upside seems limited. However, this is something that I should not have done because I have allowed personal opinions to influence me. 

Trend Strength
Trend strength seems to have waned in recent weeks, suggesting that it might go through a corrective phase. However, the +DI and -DI are going in favorable direction, the former going upwards, and the latter going downwards.  If this persist, the trend strength would be able to pick up, moving in a favorable direction.

ATR
ATR is showing a decline which is a sign that prices are stabilizing. This is a common trait among most stocks after the panic selling situation that we face last year. The volatility range is about $0.113 per 14w, which is approximately 7.53% in 14w.

Momentum
Momentum is on the strong side with little consolidation. Coupling with the possible scenario of trend strength bottoming out, it is likely that the momentum will continue to be on the upside.

Volume
Volume has been consistent and not much analysis can be made out of this.

Conclusion
Although the trend is on the up, the upside seems to be limited. However, the trend strength as represented in the ADX trend signifies that divergence between the +DI and -DI might continue and thus indicating a increasing trend strength. Momentum is still strongly on the upside with minimal contraction.
On the aspect of volatility, it indicates an approximately 7% movement in 14 weeks, which seems acceptable. 
The rationale of entry is due to the trend strength, the sustained momentum and the acceptable volatility.

Reproduced with permission from http://nenixdreams.blogspot.com 

Sunday, April 26, 2009 | 0 Comments

Nenix's Take on OKP

Posted by Share Synthesis Labels: , , ,


I entered OKP when the Trendline crossed over at $0.31 on the week of 6th to 10th April, together with Wilmar. The reason it wasn’t published is because I thought Wilmar would require more focus. Anyway, the analysis below is based on my thoughts at that point of time and I will try as much as possible not to include hindsight analysis , knowing that it is in the $0.50 region now.

Trend Direction
As mentioned, this is the “must” criteria for my entry and the 12w crossed over the 26w. The crossover was rather convincing as it is testing a new “high” since the 52w low of $0.13.

Trend Strength
Trend Strength was still on a decline even though it seems to be changing in direction. This indicator in this instance is not very indicative due to the lack of trading volume.
That said, the +DI hit the 40 mark, which signifies its strength in uptrend while the –DI is nearing the 20 mark. This gives clear indication that it has strong uptrend (if you can put aside the fact that this indicator is not indicative)

ATR
It is on a decline and it is a good sign as considering its liquidity, this should have wild swings in prices, but the falling ATR indicates that the stock has already found some ground and is stabilizing.

Momentum
Momentum seems to be cooling down and it might be possible that there will be some correction going on, though the indication is not strong.

Volume
Volume has been the main issue in this stock and no trend can be obtained as its trading volume is not consistent. (*This issue should now be better due to placement shares)

Conclusion
The risk mainly comes from the inconsistency in volume, thus incurring quite a significant liquidity risk. However, the main trend is on the up and with decreasing ATR, it seems that the stock has finally found some ground. Also, trend strength indicates the direction is going up.

All in all, the long term uptrend is going up BUT if you look at the shorter term snap shot, this is a good opportunity for profit taking as it is overbought. It won’t be surprising to see profit taking in the next few weeks and this applies to all stocks as well. And it might even test the previous lows.


Reproduced with permission from http://nenixdreams.blogspot.com 

Monday, April 20, 2009 | 0 Comments

Nenix's Take on Wilmar

Posted by Share Synthesis Labels: , , ,

The decision to enter a position in Wilmar has been quite paradoxical. I have said that in the short term, the macro situation is overbought and there will be some sort of correction. However, I also mentioned that the mid-term situation looks quite optimistic and in my opinion, stocks seem to have bottomed out. Regardless, the reason I bought Wilmar has nothing to do with opinions. I will break down the analysis into different parts.



Trend Direction
The 12w crossover with the 26w crossover has happened and it indicates that the price increase in recent weeks is faster than the average pace in the longer term. This is just an indication that prices are steadily recovering, which is the main reason why I decided to enter.

Trend Strength
It might not be as indicative as most would believe, but I always use the ADX as a tool for analysis, what good is knowing a direction of a trend if we do not know the strength of it. From the 14w ADX line, it can be observed that it is below the 20 mark. Trend strength is relatively weak at the moment. Trend strength is a cyclical process, similar to momentum, and at this point, it seems to be lowest. I am not guessing anything as ultimately trend direction is the main criteria while the remaining indicators are just supporting rationalization.

As i was mentioning, not only does the trend strength seems to be bottoming out, the -DI line (often an indication of the strength of downtrend) is gradually going down as well, with the +DI line going in the opposite direction.

If there were any indication of worry, it would be the fact that all three lines are hovering in the lower region, which might indicate that trend strength is still low at the moment.

ATR
An indication of volatility, it is now the bane of most trend traders (unless you are a swing trader). ATR has been plunging sharply since its lowest point while prices are steadily going up. This indicates that people are reacting less violently and confidence in stock is slowly creeping in.

Momentum
Momentum has been building up for the past few weeks as observed from the chart. Any retracement (short term trending) has been shortlived.

Volume
Volume trending has been an issue though as volume is decreasing with price increase. This is often the indication of a down trend.

Conclusion
It is definite that the short term trend is on the up and the middle term trend is showing good recovery. However, the recovery of the long term trend remains in question. Nonetheless, the moving average has indicated a crossover, triggering a buy signal. The trend strength supports the general analysis of the situation and decreasing ATR aids the cause as well.

All in all, it is a counter with seemingly lesser downside risk.




Reproduced with permission from http://nenixdreams.blogspot.com 

Sunday, April 12, 2009 | 0 Comments

Dead Cat Bouncing??

Posted by Share Synthesis Labels: ,

For the past month, stocks have been doing quite well. While it seems like it has hit the bottom, I believe that it is still too early to decide because this might be a retracement from the big selldown in stocks.


As I mentioned in the previous posts, I have adopted a longer term perspective of trading. I shall break down the general trending in stocks.

Short Term (12 days to 25 days)
It seems that it has reached the oversold region if you look at the MACD, ADX of the general STI component stock.

This is perfectly normal as we have been seeing a rally for the past month. However, whether it will hit oversold region and test previous lows remain to be seen.

Medium Term (5 weeks to 12 weeks)
Some stocks have exhitbited healthy mid term trends. These stocks (OKP, Raffles MG, China Fish, Wilmar) have lows higher than their previous lows, which are characteristics of an uptrend. Ultimately, these are the counters that I will be watching closely to see if they are to hit the start of the long term trend

Long Term (12 weeks to 26 weeks)
As stated in the previous posts, this indicator while limits trades, will be very irresponsive to changes and it is the initial indicators that bear the most risk when entering a long term trade. However, while some of the stocks show characteristics of a long term recovery, the fact that it coincides with a short term oversold means that there might be room for correction and risk of downside is therefore high.

Verdict
While there are opportunities, there still lies risks that are quite apparent. The fact that the start of the long term trends of some stocks coincides with the potential peak of some of the short and middle term trends shows that downside risk in the short term is still present. Based on general trends, I would suggest that we should hold and enter our positions at those which shows strong long term trends at prices which is near to previous long term low. This would minimize downside risk.

Reproduced with permission from http://nenixdreams.blogspot.com 

Monday, April 06, 2009 | 0 Comments

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